Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held "Lending Climate in
America" first quarter survey results.
JERICHO,
N.Y., March 28, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ --
Global consulting firm J.S. Held, proudly celebrating 50
transformative years, reveals the "Lending Climate in America"
survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. The
first quarter survey results highlight concern about the outcome of
the upcoming Presidential election and increased uncertainty
surrounding the retail and construction industries.
Almost 75% of respondents identified both
the retail and construction industries as likely to experience the
most volatility in the next six months.
Phoenix's Q1 2024 "Lending
Climate in America" survey asked lenders which macroeconomic
headwind they were most concerned about heading into 2024. A
majority of lenders (55%) are most concerned about the 2024
election and other political uncertainties. Of the remaining 45% of
responses, 27% believe other policy risks (e.g. interest rates) are
most concerning while the other 28% are keeping their eyes on the
geopolitical climate and war risk. To see the full results of
Phoenix's "Lending Climate in
America" Survey, please visit
https://www.phoenixmanagement.com/lending-survey/
Debtwire recently released a report indicating that bankruptcy
filings increased 58% in 2023. When lenders were asked if they
believed this trend would continue, a large majority (73%) agreed,
also noting that this is a possible precursor to a recession. The
remaining 27% of respondents believe that bankruptcy filings will
not increase in 2024 and the U.S. will avoid a recession.
Almost 75% of respondents identified both the retail and
construction industries as likely to experience the most volatility
in the next six months.
Additionally, Phoenix's
"Lending Climate in America" survey asked lenders how they see
overall demand for loans changing. Of the lenders surveyed, 46% of
lenders believe there will be no change in the demand for loans,
while 18% believe there will be a decrease. The remaining
respondents (36%) believe that there will be an increase in the
demand for loans. This is cemented by 64% of surveyed lenders
believing there will be an interest rate decrease in the upcoming
six months (the other 36% believe the Fed will make no change to
interest rates in the next six months).
Lender optimism in the U.S. economy increased slightly in the
near term from 1.75 in Q4 2023 to 1.91. 73% of lenders believe the
economy will perform at a "C" level during the next six months
while 18% believe the economy will perform at a "D" level. More
telling, lender expectations for the U.S. economy's performance in
the longer term increased significantly from 2.08 to 2.55. Of the
lenders surveyed, 64% believe the U.S. economy will perform at a
"B" level during the next twelve months, an increase of 39
percentage points from the prior quarter.
"Lenders are concerned with the economic impact of the upcoming
presidential election, and an overwhelming majority believe that
bankruptcy filings will increase in 2024," says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director of
Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. "Furthermore, borrowers'
expectations regarding expansion, hiring, and acquisition plans
have been tamped down since the Q4 survey. The results seem to fly
in the face of increases in both the short-term and long-term
expectations of the economic performance of the U.S. economy.
Still, it supports the notion that different pockets of the economy
and industry sectors are performing differently." The survey
reveals the overwhelming majority of lenders identified retail and
construction as industries likely to experience the most volatility
in the upcoming six months. Jacoby continues, "this certainly
dovetails with what we are seeing in our client base. We expect
continued volatility and choppiness in borrower performance and
lender outlook until the Fed begins reducing rates and the outcome
of the 2024 presidential election is decided."
Learn more about the dedicated and entrepreneurial experts who
help transform J.S. Held, explore our story, and celebrate this
momentous milestone, our 50 & Forward celebration, with us at
jsheld.com.
About Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held
For over 35 years, Phoenix has
provided smarter, operationally focused solutions for middle market
companies in transition.
Phoenix Management Services® provides turnaround, crisis and
interim management, and specialized advisory for both distressed
and growth-oriented companies. Phoenix Investor Services® provides
quality of earnings, operational diligence, Quality of Enterprise®,
business integration, sell-side business preparation, and other
transaction related support. Phoenix IB® provides seamless
investment banking solutions including M&A advisory, complex
restructurings, and capital placements.
As a part of J.S. Held, Phoenix
works alongside more than 1,500 professionals globally and assists
clients – corporations, insurers, law firms, governments, and
institutional investors.
J.S. Held is a global consulting firm providing technical,
scientific, financial, and strategic expertise across all assets
and value at risk. Our professionals serve as trusted advisors to
organizations facing high-stakes matters demanding urgent
attention, staunch integrity, proven experience, clear-cut
analysis, and an understanding of both tangible and intangible
assets. The firm provides a comprehensive suite of services,
products, and data that enable clients to navigate complex,
contentious, and often catastrophic situations.
More than 1,500 professionals serve organizations across six
continents, including 81% of the Global 200 Law Firms, 70% of the
Forbes Top 20 Insurance Companies (85% of the NAIC Top 50 Property
& Casualty Insurers), and 65% of the Fortune 100 Companies.
J.S. Held, its affiliates and subsidiaries are not certified
public accounting firm(s) and do not provide audit, attest, or any
other public accounting services. J.S. Held, its affiliates and
subsidiaries are not law firms and do not provide legal advice.
Securities offered through PM Securities, LLC, d/b/a Phoenix IB, a
part of J.S. Held, member FINRA/ SIPC or Ocean Tomo Investment
Group, LLC, a part of J.S. Held, member FINRA/ SIPC. All rights
reserved.
Media Contact
Kristi L. Stathis, J.S. Held, +1
786 833 4864, Kristi.Stathis@jsheld.com, JSHeld.com
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SOURCE J.S. Held